Experts on intelligence, cognitive ability and student achievement were surveyed for their opinions on the causes of the 20th century rise in intelligence test results called the “ FLynn effect ” , on the causes of a possible end of the FLynn effect and on the future development of IQ in different world regions. Ratings from N =75expertsattrib- uted the secular IQ rise to better health and nutrition, more and better education and rising standards of living. Genetic changes were seen as not important. A possible stagnation or retrograde of the FLynn effect was attrib- uted to asymmetric fertility (genetic and socialization effects), migration, declines in education and the in fl uence of media. Experts expected 21st century IQ increases in currently on average low-ability regions (+6 to +7 IQ points, in Latin America, Africa, India) and in East Asia (+7 IQ), but not in the West (a stagnation, below +1 IQ), with a small decline in the US ( − 0.45 IQ). Similar results were obtained for all experts and experts on the FLynn effect itself (mean r = 0.90 to 0.97; N = 17). The results correlated strongly with and con fi rmed a recent meta-analysis on the causes of the FLynn effect ( r = 0.65 to 0.71; Pietschnig & Voracek, 2015)
